A twister roared through Prince George’s County on Tuesday, toppling power lines and trees — some smashing into homes. Residents in Bowie had about 10 minutes of warning for the twister, which surprised forecasters.
Tuesday proved to be a perplexing day for forecasters. The Weather Service had placed the area under a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms but did not highlight tornadoes as a hazard of particular concern. When showers and a few storms swept through the area in the early afternoon, short-term computer models only simulated isolated additional storms in their wake, mainly north of Washington.
The poor model performance is one of the reasons a careful post-storm analysis of the environmental conditions is so important, as part of the learning experience. Alas, a significantly unstable air mass evolved by 5 p.m. as shown in the center of the red “bull’s eye” and the supercell was able to tap into this buoyant air on southerly, low-level winds west of the warm front.
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