After the biggest loss for 60/40 portfolios since the global financial crisis, better days may lie ahead for the trillion-dollar complex of balanced investment strategies.
AFTER the biggest loss for 60/40 portfolios since the global financial crisis, better days may lie ahead for the trillion-dollar complex of balanced investment strategies.
Now survey participants are getting modestly bullish on bonds. The 10-year yield is seen dipping to 3.5 percent by the end of 2023, down from last year’s high of 4.24 percent. After being negatively correlated for much of the past twenty years, the relationship between stocks and bonds flipped decisively in 2022 as elevated inflation and subsequent interest-rate hikes hurt both asset classes, meaning bonds largely failed to hedge down days in equities.
The muted outlook has most investors overall keeping their stock holdings largely unchanged for now. Professional money managers are more bearish in the short run, survey results show. Overall, some 23 percent of survey participants expect to increase their holdings over the next month compared to 28 percent who said they expect it to go down. Among retail investors, 26 percent expect to boost exposure and 15 percent plan to cut it.
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