One analyst changed Bob Menendez's Senate seat from 'Solidly Democratic' to 'Likely Democratic' for 2024 after felony charges of fraud, bribery and extortion.
resulting in the judge declaring a mistrial. Menendez has stepped down as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, though this is required byIf Menendez resigns immediately, a successor will be appointed by New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. They could potentially then run in November 2024 with the advantage of incumbency.
Should Menendez seek reelection in 2024, he is likely to face a primary challenge, as he did in 2018 after his first indictment when he beat Lisa McCormick to retain thecandidacy. Potentially, a big beast of New Jersey politics could challenge him, such as one of the three representatives listed above. However, if not, there might be an opportunity for a less well-known Democrat to pull off a surprise.
In 2018, Menendez beat his Republican challenger with 54 percent of the vote to 43 percent. Should he secure the Democratic nomination again in 2024, the GOP might think they stand a chance. The local newspaperreported that Christine Serrano Glassner, a mayor in Morris County, is the current Republican frontrunner to contest the New Jersey seat.
After the indictment was announced, FiveThirtyEight, another election-analysis site, gave the Democrats a 94.6 percent chance of winning the seat next year, against 5.4 percent for the Republicans.
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