Black turnout in midterms was one of the low points for Democrats.
There was a lot of good news — or at least news that felt good — for Democrats this election cycle, from holding the Senate to remaining stubbornly competitive in the House.
Still, relatively low Black turnout is becoming an unmistakable trend in the post-Obama era, raising important — if yet unanswered — questions about how Democrats can revitalize the enthusiasm of their strongest group of supporters. But it does help make sense of one of the stranger features of this election: how Republicans fared so well in the national vote, but routinely underperformed in critical states and districts. With the important exceptions of Georgia and North Carolina, the Black population share was below the national average in virtually all of the key districts and Senate contests.
In Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit, turnout fell 10% to 12% beneath 2018 levels. At the same time, turnoutin the rest of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Obviously, there are plenty of voters of other races and ethnicities in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit, but the relatively lower Black turnout in these places is part of a broader nationwide pattern: In areas where Black voters represent a larger share of the population, the turnout sank by more.
The lower Black share of the electorate was not quite decisive in North Carolina, where the Democrat Cheri Beasley probably needed Black turnout to match or exceed white turnout share to win her Senate race . It probably wasn’t decisive in the Georgia governor’s race either; Stacey Abrams lost by almost eight points. No realistic Black turnout would have been enough.
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