Big Apple isn’t expected to reach pre-pandemic levels “until late in 2025,” according to the Jan. 4 report from the city’s Independent Budget Office.
Only around 35% of the city jobs lost in calendar year 2020 had come back by the end of 2021, according to the Jan. 4 report by the city’s nonpartisan fiscal watchdog.
Jobs in the hardest-hit, tourist-dependent leisure and hospitality industries are especially slow to return, the report said. Wholesale and retail trade also suffered outsized job losses during the pandemic, and were expected to recover slower than sectors like professional services due, in part, to “in part due to IBO’s expectation of fewer people commuting into the city on a daily basis, as well as fewer tourists and business travelers.
But IBO Deputy Director George Sweeting attributed that to an increase in “transfer payments” — such as federally increased unemployment benefits, refundable tax credits and direct stimulus payouts — which rose more than wages fell. Only around 35% of the city jobs lost in the calendar year 2020 had come back by the end of 2021, but the Big Apple lost about 615,200 of its 4.7 million jobs in 2020 and saw just 212,600, or 35%, return in 2021.
But Wall Street’s outlook for 2022 will be “a little more cautious,” as the Fed is expected to start to tighten the spigot, he said.
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