Biden's budget proposal shows the White House's priorities, as fiscal negotiations with House Republicans play out over the next two years.
released last month. It envisions unemployment jumping even higher, to 4.7% this year and 4.9% next, with inflation coming down more slowly.The big near-term question is how much pain it will take to bring inflation back down.
The administration's view, as reflected in the new numbers, is that it will take a year of anemic growth in 2023 and a jobless rate well above its current levels, yet still low by historical standards.the administration also sees lower trend interest rates than the CBO does, which in turn improves the U.S. fiscal outlook. The administration assumes that 10-year Treasury yields will stabilize at 3.4% later in the decade, compared with 3.8% in the CBO forecasts.
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