It's been a disappointing season for the Baylor Bears, who are now tasked with trying to stop Air Force's triple-option offense. D_Farmer believes the Falcons can use this to their advantage and win outright.
December may come and neglect the Air Force Falcons — a byproduct of the annual festivities around the Army-Navy game — but the fact of the matter is, Air Force was the best service academy in 2022, thus the only one of three to make a bowl game.
Bowl-season motivations can be hard to diagnose. How badly does Baylor want to play this game, four weeks removed from its third loss in a row? Has the letdown of a 6-6 season following a Big-12 title dampened the roster’s resolve this month? Last year the Bears closed the season on a five-game winning streak: will they be able to bounce back from this year’s three-game losing streak?No offense kills a defense’s motivation like the triple-option.
Since Troy Calhoun took over at Air Force in 2007, the Falcons are 6-5 straight up and 7-4 ATS in bowl games. They have covered and won their last three and four of their last five, that fourth coming as an underdog in 2014. As Calhoun has grown his program, it certainly seems he has leaned into frustrating opponents in the postseason.
Adjusting for sacks, the Bears gave up 4.51 yards per rush this season. On the average running play, Baylor’s opponents added 0.058 expected points to their total, once factoring in game situation. PerIt does not need to be pointed out that struggling against the run is a distinct worry against a triple-option offense, does it? Well, it’s a distinct worry. The Bears will need to defend every down against Air Force as the Falcons attempt two fourth downs per game — converting 19 of 24.
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