The race for control of the 50-50 Senate will come down to a handful of key races in a midterm cycle that carries high stakes for the future of President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.
Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterm elections, and in the final stretch, Republicans appear to have the political winds at their backs in the battle for Senate control. The political landscape looked more optimistic for Democrats earlier this summer after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and boosted their base’s enthusiasm, but recent polling indicates the economy appears to be motivating most voters.
Races in Georgia and Nevada have for weeks been considered dead heats, while contests for Democratic-held seats in Arizona and New Hampshire, as well as a Republican-held seat in Pennsylvania, have become nail-biters in the final days of the midterm cycle as Republicans surge in the polls. Howell believes the race will ultimately be decided in Walker’s favor, even if the two head to a runoff. Georgia law mandates that candidates must receive a majority of the vote in order to win. If neither candidate reaches 50%, as polling suggests will be the case, Warnock and Walker will advance to a runoff election on Dec. 6.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, continues to predict Republicans will end up controlling 52 Senate seats and has even said Republicans have a pathway to 55. “We’ve got a bunch of hard-fought races, we’re all giving it our best on both sides, and I think it’s a jump ball,” McConnell said at a Senate Republican leadership press conference.
Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said on MSNBC last week that he was optimistic Democrats would keep their Senate majority because of the party’s get-out-the-vote infrastructure and Republicans' “incredibly damaged and inferior candidates.”
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