Leaving aside the question of whether Aukus, in fact, delivers, the real diplomatic challenge lies ahead
What this means is that Aukus isn’t nearly enough to secure Australia’s or the region’s prosperity and security.
Deterrence must be matched with reassurance – reassurance to Beijing that, irrespective of what the US might do, Australia is not interested in containing China’s economic rise, nor abandoning its One China policy. Delivering this suite of reassurances will be difficult, not least of all because Beijing has paranoid tendencies, such as seeing “foreign forces” behind domestic unrest everywhere from Xinjiang to Hong Kong.It will be difficult because unlike conventionally powered submarines, nuclear-powered ones have obvious relevance for a Taiwan Strait contingency – or perhaps one in the South or East China seas.
The one big advantage Australia can parlay is its track record, which contrasts significantly with America’s. The Trump administration wasin its intention to keep China subordinate in its own region. And in terms of policies, the Biden administration has only gone further. Last October, it cut off China’s access to advanced semiconductors in a move that Australia’s trade ministerOver the last 50 years, Australian governments of both persuasions have consistently welcomed China’s growing wealth.
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