An international team of scientists -- led by two who worked together at Washington University in St. Louis -- found that volcanic eruptions can cause the Pacific Walker Circulation to temporarily weaken, inducing El Niño-like conditions. The results provide important insights into how El Niño and La Niña events may change in the future.
The Pacific Ocean covers 32% of Earth's surface area, more than all the land combined. Unsurprisingly, its activity affects conditions around the globe.
"What happens in the tropical Pacific doesn't stay in the tropical Pacific," said Bronwen Konecky, an assistant professor of earth, environmental and planetary sciences in Arts & Sciences at Washington University."It impacts vast stretches of the world. The Pacific Walker Circulation is a major driver of variability in global precipitation."
Climate models generally predict the Pacific Walker Circulation will weaken in response to global warming; however, its recent strengthening suggests that aerosols -- the suspension of fine, solid particles or liquid droplets in air -- introduced by human activity might have the opposite effect.
That said, the authors didn't notice any significant change in the circulation's strength -- yet."That was one surprising result," Stevenson said."Because by the end of the 21st century, most climate models suggest that the Pacific Walker Circulation will weaken." "We have long known that large volcanic eruptions, especially from the tropics, tend to cool the planet off for a few years," Konecky said."But when it comes to hydroclimate, the impacts are harder to figure out, because rainfall and other hydroclimate variables are so much noisier than temperature.
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