Is it too early to say anything meaningful about which candidate will win the Democratic nomination? Yes, yes it is
still 65 weeks to go until the Democratic Party holds its nominating convention in Milwaukee—about the same amount of time a rhinoceros pregnancy lasts. Is it too early to say anything meaningful about which candidate will win? Yes it is: at this point in the 2016 cycle Donald Trump had not even announced his bid for the presidency.
Presidential primaries have changed greatly over the past half-century. It was once relatively easy to identify a winner, as fewer candidates ran and elite endorsements could make or break a campaign with ease. Most candidates did not formally announce they were running unless they already knew they were going to have a good shot at the nomination. The so-called “invisible primary” really was invisible to most Americans.
If not now, when should you start paying attention to the primaries? According to our number-crunching, polls start picking the right winner more than half of the time 52 weeks before the convention, or about in mid-July of this year. By that point, most candidates have announced that they are running, the winners and losers are just a couple of spots from their finishing position and more voters have tuned in.
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