A debate over conflicting measurements of key cosmological properties is set to shape the next decade of astronomy and astrophysics
How fast is the universe expanding? How much does matter clump up in our cosmic neighborhood? Different methods of answering these two questions—either by observing the early cosmos and extrapolating to present times, or by making direct observations of the nearby universe—are yielding consistently different answers.
The third generation has been waiting in the wings for years and is only now starting to take center stage with the successful launch and deep-space deployment of Hubble’s successor, the James Webb Space Telescope .
Others, besides SH0ES, have also been on the case, including the Pantheon+ team, which has compiled a large dataset of type Ia supernovae. How Clumpy Is the Cosmos? The other tension that researchers are starting to take seriously concerns a cosmic parameter called S8, which depends on the density of matter in the universe and the extent to which it is clumped up rather than evenly distributed. Estimates of S8 also involve, on one end, measurements of the CMB, with measurements of the local universe on the other. The CMB-derived value of S8 in the early universe, extrapolated using LCDM, generates a present-day value of about 0.
Whereas JWST might resolve or strengthen the H0 tension, the wide-field survey data from the Euclid, Roman and Rubin observatories could do the same for the S8 tension by studying the clustering and clumping of matter. The sheer amount of data expected from this trio of telescopes will reduce S8 error bars enormously. “The statistics are going to go through the roof,” Natarajan says.
Potential fixes for S8 exhibit a similarly vexing lack of overlap with H0. In March, Guillermo Franco Abellán of the University of Montepellier in France and colleagues published a study in Physical Review D showing that the S8 tension could be eased by the hypothetical decay of cold dark matter particles . This mechanism would lower the value of S8 arising from CMB-based extrapolations, bringing it more in line with the late universe measurements.
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