An asteroid, 2024 YR4, poses a 3.1 percent chance of striking Earth in 2032, making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded. Experts say there's no need for alarm as the global astronomical community monitors the situation. The James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid next month, and its data will help refine trajectory predictions. While the impact probability is currently 3.1 percent, it's expected to fluctuate before ultimately dropping to zero.
This handout picture provided by NASA on January 31, 2025 shows asteroid 2024 YR4 as observed by the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope at the New Mexico Institute of Technology on January 27, 2025. - AFPPIX
The International Asteroid Warning Network , a worldwide planetary defense collaboration, issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability had crossed one percent. Since then, the figure has fluctuated but continues to trend upward. The last time an asteroid of greater than 30 meters in size posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 -- a possibility later ruled out by additional observations.
“Webb is able to see things that are very, very dim,“ he said -- which is key because the asteroid's orbit is currently taking it out towards Jupiter, and its next close approach will not be until 2028. Its potential devastation comes less from its size and more from its velocity, which could be nearly 40,000 miles per hour if it hits.
ASTEROID EARTH IMPACT NASA JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE
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