The challenges facing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his backers in Russia and Iran are unprecedented.
In 2015, Russia waged its largest military campaign outside its borders since the Cold War, launching a sweeping air war to rescue Bashar al-Assad’s crumbling regime in Syria. Back then, Syrian rebels were closing in on the regime’s strongholds, even as Assad leaned heavily on Iran and Hezbollah for support in the years prior. Moscow’s intervention turned the tide, culminating in the recapture of the largest Syrian city of Aleppo and a fragile stability that has largely held since.
By contrast, the rebels appear more disciplined and unified than ever. Under the command of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – a former al-Qaeda affiliate that has since severed ties with the group, and even all but rooted it out – opposition forces have evolved into a well-organised military machine, better equipped to sustain a long fight. The regime, ironically, now looks more fragmented and chaotic than the rebels it once dismissed as disorganised insurgents.
While Iran is unlikely to abandon Assad entirely, its role may shift to fortifying key corridors – like the one connecting Damascus to the coast and the land bridge linking Iraq and Lebanon – rather than reversing rebel gains across the map. For the United States, this shifting reality could force a rethink of its Syria policy. Washington has long oscillated between tacitly tolerating Assad’s rule and supporting a fragmented status quo, where Kurdish forces control the north-east and rebels hold out in the north-west.
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