Analysis: We are 600 days from the general election in 2020, and as of writing, there are at least a dozen serious Democratic candidates who’ve announced their presidential bids. Why?
Democrat Beto O'Rourke, shown at an event last month, announced his presidential bid Thursday morning. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow March 14 at 10:10 AM Sen. Ted Cruz announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on March 23, 2015, 596 days before the 2016 general election. He was the first major-party contender to formally declare his candidacy that year.
Perhaps the issue isn’t that 2020 is so early but that 2016 was late. Maybe, except the 2000, 2004 and 2012 fields also launched later than what we’re seeing so far in 2020. This year looks more like the entries into the 2008 election.
Both the 2008 and 2020 contests also followed wave midterm elections in which one party benefited from an energized base of support, motivated in part by opposition to the sitting president. That energy, it seems fair to assume, would be something that presidential candidates would want to capture. But, then, 2014 was also a strong election for the Republicans, picking up 13 seats in the House.
Another factor, clearly, is that the fields tend to move as a herd. If no one else is jumping in, there’s less urgency to do so.
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