Analysis: What the electoral history of 2020 Democrats tells us about their viability
2020 Democratic presidential candidates. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow May 7 at 4:24 PM One thing that tends to be obscured in the world of politics is that even the most successful politicians don’t really have that much experience in electoral politics.
Those short histories also mean that phrases such as “never lost a race” lose some meaning. As do claims about how often a candidate has faced the voters. A 40-year career in the Senate, for example, could mean six elections — many of them won by lopsided margins thanks to the advantages of incumbency.
Visually, here’s the electoral history of the 2020 Democratic candidates who are polling the best. All columns represent margins in individual elections. It only considers non-primary campaigns and elections for seats at the mayoral level or higher.Former vice president Joe Biden has won nine of nine races, seven Senate and two as Obama’s vice president. He won his Senate races by an average of 29 points and only once, in his first race, won by less than 5 points.
Sen. Kamala D. Harris is three for three, winning two state attorney general races, one by less than a point and the other, her reelection, by 15. She won election to the Senate over another Democrat by 23 points in California, a blue state. Sen. Bernie Sanders has run more races than has any of the other candidates, racking up 15 wins in 16 races in dark-blue Vermont. He won his House races by an average of 28 points and his Senate races by an average of 40. Only twice has he faced a close race, edging out his Republican House opponent by three points in 1994 and barely winning his first mayoral race in Burlington, Vt., by 10 votes.
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