Analysis: It's still early in the Republican presidential primary cycle. But this is not a 2016-type situation.
It’s interesting that this same pitch is coming from candidates with very different positions in the polls. In, Christie is at 2.5 percent compared with DeSantis’s 20.9 percent. To extend Christie’s analogy, a candidate having 20.9 percent of support in polling at this same point in 2015 would be leading the field. But DeSantis is not leading — he’s trailing former president Donald Trump by more than 30 points.
Let’s look at six recent primary contests: the past four Republican primaries, and the Democratic ones in 2008 and 2016 that for months featured a presumptive winner, in both cases Hillary Clinton. On the charts below, each leading candidate is shown by the margin of his or her lead over the period from 600 days to 150 days before the general.
The Sanders comparison is important because it reflects what it takes for an established candidate with a large lead to be challenged: outsider, insurgent status. Clinton was expected to win in 2016 and a lot of Democrats were frustrated by that, by her moderate politics and by her cementing the support of the party establishment. Sanders was an outsider and, while he was dispatched fairly quickly once voting began, he mounted a remarkable challenge to the long-standing front-runner.
But while Trump is the driver of the party agenda and rhetoric, he has been effective at still presenting himself in opposition to the party’s traditional power centers. He’s managed to preserve the idea that he is the voice of the outsider right, in part by successfully reframing his criminal indictments and investigations into his actions as establishment efforts to hold him at bay. He is the guy who will tear it all down … despite having been in a position to do so before and not doing it .
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