Analysis: The five ways GOP 2024 hopefuls are approaching the Trump problem
One thing that’s changed, of course, is that Trump has spent nearly eight years tending to a fervent base of support, a base that still yields him the support of at least 2 in 5 potential Republican primary voters in very, very, very, very, very early polling. Another thing that has changed is that he has shown very clearly that he’s willing to try to turn that base against any perceived opponent, regardless of party.
In 2016, this was less clear. It seemed probable that Trump would stumble in some way and someone could sneak by him, vacuuming up his support as had happened so often before after candidates stumbled in the primary. The calculus now is different: Potential candidates want to both run against Trump and, generally, avoid irritating his base, in case they might start looking for a new hero.
So let us review those approaches and consider the possible presidential candidates who are deploying them.One of the better ways to become president is to first be vice president. Two of our past six presidents were first vice presidents — and that doesn’t include Al Gore’s popular-vote victory in 2000. So a big chunk of the jockeying to be vice president is always done with an eye at eventual promotion. So we see some of the early 2024 jostling include the same machination.
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