Analysts warn Apple's closure of sales in China may lead to little or no sales in a key market while the country fights the coronavirus.
With Apple's 42 stores closed until at least Feb. 9, Citi estimated the company's worst case scenario, where sales in China go to zero.
"Each week of no China sales is $850 million of sales or a reduction of -1.3%. Should the situation elongate to a month it would represent $3.4 billion or a reduction of -5.2% [for Apple's total sales]," Citi said in a note to investors.While Apple said its online store would remain open, Citi pointed out that deliveries may be curtailed.
Evercore ISI likewise noted Apple's heavy sales exposure to China, as well as its large manufacturing and supply chain in the country. According to Evercore, about half of Apple's 775 supply vendors are in China.
Apple's recent revenue forecast "incorporated some degree of headwinds from these issues," Evercore said, "so likely we think AAPL is one of the more de-risked models." Deutsche also pointed out Apple's flexibility, noting that the company's $4 billion range for revenue guidance this quarter was wider than its historical range of about $2 billion to $3 billion .
"We see the coronavirus impact on AAPL as a dynamic that continues to gain in importance to the company, though we size the present impact to be relatively minimal, financially," Deutsche said.
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