Analysis: In the FiveThirtyEight and RCP averages for the 2024 nominating contest to date, the closest Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been to former president Donald Trump has been in the double-digits.
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We have all been around enough presidential campaigns by now to know what’s going to happen over the next week or two. DeSantis will announce. Some of the squishiness in the polls that accompanies not being a declared candidate will firm up and his position will probably improve . There will probably also be a spate of articles about how the DeSantis comeback had begun.The central — perhaps existential — question will be whether a comeback really will be underway.
By itself, this recurring gap undercuts DeSantis’s message. If the argument you’re making to voters is constrained to complaints about the second-order effects of a third Trump presidential candidacy , that means arguing things like “nominating Trump will mean we lose yet again.” It’s a tough punch to land if the guy you’re accusing of being a loser is doubling you up in the polls.
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