The popular revolt in Iran triggered by the death of a woman held by police is unlikely to pose an immediate threat to clerical rulers whose elite security forces have crushed one protest after another in recent years.
But the protests, the biggest since 2019, are another crack in the structure of the Islamic Republic, which has been facing unrest over economic hardship, inflation and freedoms.
"The death of Mahsa Amiri released decades of suppressed energy and will among women to fight back. It’s not the first time, but this time is different," said Omid Memarian, an Iran analyst based in the United States. While that defiance is common, the shock over Amini's death and nationwide protests have raised the stakes as Iranian women call for more freedoms.
So far Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia have been relatively restrained, but they could be mobilised quickly. Warnings from the army and the intelligence minister on Friday showed they are poised to crack down as they have done before. "The protests pose less of a risk to immediate government stability than to its legitimacy and sustainability over the longer term."
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