Although the unexpected appearance of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s daughter raised speculation that she could be a successor in the making, analysts say it would be an unprecedented uphill struggle in the male-dominated dynasty.
Each change at the top in North Korea has raised the prospect of a leadership vacuum or collapse of the Kim dynasty, which has ruled the country since its founding in 1948.
Chun Su-jin, the South Korean author of a book on North Korean women leaders, said the chance of North Korean elites welcoming Kim's daughter as ruler is close to zero. Barring a sudden health problem that leads to his incapacitation or death, there is a fair amount of time before Kim, believed to be nearly 40, needs to consider a successor, said Michael Madden, director of North Korea Leadership Watch.
According to Yonhap news agency, South Korean intelligence officials believe the girl seen on Friday is a daughter identified as Ju Ae by former American basketball player Dennis Rodman, who spent time with Kim's family in 2013. She would be about 12-13 years old, and is one of an estimated three children of Kim Jong Un, Madden said.
The increased participation of North Korean women in elite politics does not necessarily indicate change to the broader social or political systems, 38 North said in a 2020 report. "In North Korea, gender is still important to be a leader," said Hyun In-ae, a North Korean defector who now works at the Ewha Institute of Unification Studies in Seoul.When rumours and speculation arose in 2020 about Kim Jong Un’s health, his sister was seen a possible placeholder to take over the family dynasty until one of Kim’s children was old enough.
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