Analysis | Expect a wild NHL postseason with the Flames, not the Lightning as the Stanley Cup favorites

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Analysis | Expect a wild NHL postseason with the Flames, not the Lightning as the Stanley Cup favorites
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Analysis: Expect a wild NHL postseason with the Flames, not the Lightning as the Stanley Cup favorites

The Calgary Flames had a league-high five players on the team with at least 70 points. By Neil Greenberg Neil Greenberg Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for The Washington Post Email Bio Follow April 8 at 1:54 PM If there is a clear takeaway from the NHL’s regular season it is that not much separates a number of this year’s playoff teams. Even the one team that’s clearly above the rest should not be considered the most likely to lift the Stanley Cup.

Consider the field in the Eastern Conference. The Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup last year. The Boston Bruins put up 107 points, tied with the Flames for the most of any team not named the Lightning. Columbus was aggressive at the trade deadline, adding two high-profile pieces in Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel. The Islanders had a historic turnaround defensively. Pittsburgh, despite injuries, still boasts Sidney Crosby.

However, the edge still belongs with Tampa Bay, especially in net. Vasilevskiy was 26 goals better than an average netminder facing the same number of shot attempts. Bobrovsky was five goals better than an average netminder.A first-round rematch from last year between two Original Six teams, the Bruins should get the better of the Maple Leafs again this year.

The defending champions got a tough draw with the Hurricanes. Carolina generates the most high-danger chances in the NHL this season at even strength and the seventh-most on the power play . They are also good at preventing their opponents from doing the same: sixth-fewest scoring chances allowed at even strength and the lowest rate allowed on the penalty kill .

New York’s defensive improvement this season suggest’s Trotz’s team could do the same again this year. In 2017-18, the Islanders allowed 293 goals, the most any squad gave up since 2006-07, with 174 of those originating from high-danger areas such as the slot and the crease. This year, the Islanders have allowed a league-low 191 goals against, with just 110 coming from high-danger areas.Dallas deserves more consideration as a contender.

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