Given Germany’s pinched geography, heavily loaded history and complex politics, the process of changing course is necessarily clumsy. But this Wende is taking more Zeit than many would like
Listeners in Germany and abroad, notably those who have long pleaded for the’s biggest and richest state to take its security more seriously, cheered. Not only did the dour Social Democrat, whose party has since the 1970s preached pacifying Russia, condemn its aggression and lend full support to Ukraine.
In truth the scrap over Leopards brought little glory to any of Ukraine’s allies. A far clearer success for Germany has been its disentanglement from energy dependence on Russia. This is indeed a sharp-turn. When Russia shut off gas supplies in midsummer last year, the talk was not just of recession but of Germany’s doomed economic model.
A success less easy to quantify is Mr Scholz’s deft navigation of dangerous politics. The taciturn chancellor is no great communicator. Among opinion-makers, many chafe at his penchant for consensus-building over bold action. Whether you call it plodding or plain stubborn, however, Mr Scholz’s patience seems to tow opinion to where he needs it to go. Until thespeech few Germans would have consented to breaking an unspoken ban on sending weapons into war zones.
Delaying Germany’s own military transformation cannot be so easily excused. At the end of the cold war, no country embraced the “peace dividend” with as much enthusiasm. The Bundeswehr has shrivelled from Europe’s biggest land force to a shadow. In 1990 it fielded over 5,000 main battle tanks. Today it has 321. By some estimates its ammunition stock would last just two days in a real war; restoring adequate levels could cost €20bn.
Before appointing the tough and capable Mr Pistorius, Mr Scholz had seemed to be as blasé about defence as his predecessors. During haggles over tanks his team failed even to start planning, meaning more delays now before the Leopards can be deployed. Despite the wallet-waving, defence spending last year did not move, and is budgeted at barely more this year. But Mr Pistorius is off to a racing start.
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