A slump in recreational vehicle sales has long been considered an early warning sign of a broader economic downturn.
Most economists are expecting anext year as the Fed rate hikes increasingly squeeze consumers and businesses, according to monthly surveys by Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators. But some research firms, including Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics, believe the U.S. will narrowly avoid a slump.
Although every downturn over the past four decades has been preceded by an RV slump several months earlier, most – but not all – declines in RV shipments have been followed by recessions, Hicks says. He says he’s more confident a recession is coming this time because the pullback in RV shipments has been dramatic.
The Elkhart area saw its unemployment rate rise to 2.8% in November, highest since June 2021, but that's still well below the nation's jobless rate. So far, most RV manufacturers are trimming hours and extending holiday production hiatuses rather than laying off workers because of longstanding worker shortages, Hicks says.RV sales aren’t the only economic bellwether flashing red.
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