Pork prices in China may soar more than 70% by next year, as hog populations — ravaged by African swine fever — plunge to 'historically low' levels.
Pork prices in China may soar by more than 70% by next year, as hog populations — ravaged by the African swine fever virus — plunge to"historically low" levels. Production levels could recover only by 2021 or later, experts say.
"Despite the rise in pork prices, pig farmers may be reluctant to increase hog stock on concerns about . In this regard, the upturn of the hog cycle could last longer and drive pork prices higher than in previous hog cycles," the bank said. The problem has been exacerbated by the trade war with U.S., with tariffs driving up prices of soybeans — used for animal feed — and leading Chinese farmers to slaughter costly breeding swine rather than risk forced culling, said research firm TS Lombard.
"Chinese authorities have actively downplayed the severity of the disease. Meanwhile small and medium sized farmers are incentivized to hide outbreaks for fear of massive livestock and commercial losses. The result is an at best murky picture of the domestic pork market," he told CNBC.
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