The Federal Reserve could not realistically have hoped for a better jobs report today but it will need to be one of a number of positive economic reports over the coming months before it's ready to declare victory.
The headline NFP miss combined with the -101,000 net revision was big and policymakers will be hoping it's a sign of things to come rather than a blip in the data. We have been seeing the labor market cooling slightly but just not nearly enough until now and this could be a sign of that accelerating. The average hourly earnings figures were also very positive, with the monthly number at 0.2% being the second such print in three months.
Broadly speaking, we're not far from the 50-divide between growth and contraction. This could be the sweet spot for policymakers as it weighs on activity, reduces demand, and allows inflation to fall without triggering a significant recession. Oil slips again on the back of weaker US data All of this softer data may have come as a relief to Fed policymakers but it's weighed on crude oil, with a weaker economy meaning softer demand.
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Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged despite stubborn inflationA surging economy has complicated the Fed's fight to cool price increases.
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