5 things JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just told investors and the American public
The U.S. economy is “fairly healthy,” just not as healthy as last year and the risks of recession might be increasing, JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said in his annual letter to investors on Thursday.
The stock JPM, +1.06% rose 0.8% in midday trade. It has gained 8.1% year to date, but has lost 4.9% over the past 12 months. In comparison, the SPDR Financial Select Sector exchange-traded fund XLF, +0.72% has slipped 3.9% over the past year while the Dow Jones Industrial Average JPM, +1.06% has advanced 8.7%.There are economic risks on the horizon that will demand our attention
“We should only expect China to do what is in its own self interest, but we believe that it should and will agree to some of the United States’ trade demands because, ultimately, the changes will create a stronger Chinese economy,” Dimon wrote. “We believe the odds are high that a fair trade deal will eventually be worked out--but if not, there could be serious repercussions.”
He said the next recession might not resemble prior recessions, which had specific identifiable causes, because the cause could be the cumulative effect of negative factors, “the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back.”The federal government is becoming less relevant to what is going on in people’s lives, Dimon said. As a result, people are losing faith in their politicians’ ability to deliver on their promises and meet societal needs.
Meanwhile, Republicans have to acknowledge that “America should and can afford to provide a proper safety net to our elderly, our sick and our poor,” as well as help generate more opportunities for more Americans. “We should all understand that global laws, standards and norms will be established whether or not our nation participates in setting them,” Dimon wrote. “It is certain that we will be happier with the evolution of global standards if we help craft and implement them. “We should not abdicate this role.”Dimon said current “excessive” regulation has reduced growth and business formation for both large and small companies, without making the economy safer or better.
Some areas where Dimon said he thinks there should be “recalibration” include the lightly regulated “shadow bank,” or non-bank financial sector, where leverage and risk is increasing. Another area where Dimon thinks there is too much regulation is in the origination and servicing of mortgages. He said opening up securitization markets for safe loans would improve the cost and availability of mortgages, particularly to the young, self-employed and those with prior defaults.
He also said the power of artificial intelligence and machine learning is “real,” and are “rapidly being deployed” across virtually every aspect of the bank’s business. Since that makes some employees redundant, the bank is looking to retrain and deploy those employees for other roles inside and outside the company.
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