The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics published its first forecast of the 2024 electoral college contest, and only a handful rate as “toss-ups” where either side could win: Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.
. The group called every state right except North Carolina, which it predicted would go for Democrat Joe Biden. Instead, Republican Donald Trump won it by 1.4 percentage points.
Still, the UVA forecast is a reminder that for all the endless ads, the political brawling, and the hundreds of billions of dollars in campaign spending, US presidential contests come down to a strikingly small number of voters. Biden won a decisive electoral count victory in 2020, beating Trump 306 to 232. But he won three states — Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona — by less than one percentage point, and those states accounted for 37 electoral votes.
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